Surviving the Trumpquake

Like an earthquake, the initial trauma and damage caused by the dismantling of USAID was prefigured by tremors and is now followed by aftershocks. And, like any earthquake, anyone who tries to predict the future while it is still ongoing risks looking foolish! That said, as we wait for the dust to settle, one thing is clear: the old order – of official development assistance (ODA) and likely the entire post-World War II global architecture – is no more. 

It's been evident for years that the traditional Northern/Western model of development aid was in decline. Populist nationalist politicians across wealthy nations harbour a particular disdain for helping people in distant lands: "charity begins at home." The USAID shock was, therefore, "unprecedented but not unexpected," as Amref's CEO Dr. Githinji Gitahi noted in a recent speech. Dr. Gitahi emphasised that for the health "centre to hold" would require shifting focus from curative to preventive health: more clean water, fewer MRIs. And that it will demand courageous, far-sighted leadership. To which I can only say yes! 

IRC and many fellow travellers in the broader "systems strengthening" movement have long maintained an ambivalent relationship with traditional ODA. We rely on it for much of our funding yet remain deeply uncomfortable with its underlying charitable and colonial ethos. For those who share the vision of empowered national leadership and robust national systems, the Trumpquake brings mixed emotions. 

Profound sorrow and anger for those who depend on the current system: the world's most vulnerable people living in the world’s poorest countries.  Yes, Mr. Musk – despite your lies – children, women, and men are and will continue to suffer unnecessarily because of this ill-informed vandalism. We also feel empathy for those working within the broader aid system – dedicated professionals now flooding LinkedIn with "I'm available" messages. 

Yet all of this comes mixed with tentative hope that perhaps we can leverage this shock to build something better from the ashes. The system being razed was, in many ways, well beyond its expiration date and desperately needed reform. With apologies to Nietzsche, this is decolonisation with a hammer (or maybe a chainsaw!). The question becomes: what next? A fragmented mosaic of ruling elites striking deals with predatory foreign interests? Or something stronger and more coordinated – national leaders provide visionary guidance for a world beyond aid, where wealthier countries continue offering assistance based on mature relationships of mutual respect? 

Which of these radically different futures prevails will, ultimately, depend on the quality and vision of leaders within aid recipient countries. And the ability of organisations like mine to shift the aid narrative from one of dependence to local agency and leadership.   

Simplifying greatly, nations with strong leadership and a clear developmental vision (like Rwanda, where I visited last week) are likely to thrive in a multipolar world. As President Mahama of Ghana said in response to the US developments: "As bridges are burning, new bridges are formed." The vacuum left by USAID is unlikely to persist; even as Northern aid has declined total aid volumes have risen as new actors like China step in. Conversely, countries lacking the vision and leadership of a Rwanda (or Singapore, Botswana, China, or India) will likely continue to face the rapacious colonial practices that dominated much of the last century. 

At the African Health Agenda International Conference (AHAIC) in Kigali and two weeks earlier at the African Water Association's 2025 conference (AFWASA25), I witnessed something potentially transformative in the dignified responses of one African leader after another. Their expressions of vision, calls for self-reliance, and recognition that the old paradigm is finished suggesting a new path forward. 

I, and IRC, remain committed to supporting our partners (governmental and non-governmental) in adapting to and benefiting from this new world. Yes, we too must change, having been directly affected by the stop work orders – immediately losing about 8% of our projected gross revenue for 2025, with more certainly to come. This will be challenging in the short term, but I remain steadfast in our commitment to our partners and to building the strong, independent national systems that will finally sever the chains of dependency. 

Unprecedented, yes. Expected, certainly. But it is what it is. Now we must lean into the future – working together to build something stronger and more resilient from the wreckage.